Or, malgré un fort potentiel de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, les TIC s’avèrent de plus en plus gourmandes en électricité. D’après les estimations du rapport, la consommation électrique annuelle des TIC s’élève à 58,5 TWh, soit 13, 5 % de la consommation électrique française estimée à 434 TWh. Les téléviseurs et leurs périphériques constituent le plus gros poste de la consommation électrique au sein des TIC. Cela s’explique notamment par l’engouement nouveau que suscitent les écrans plats, jugés très énergivores, ainsi que par l’achat croissant d’adaptateurs/ décodeurs, destinés à assurer la transition vers le numérique et la haute définition. A cet égard, le passage à la TNT (1) dès fin 2011 n’a rien de réjouissant et illustre la nécessité, à l’heure actuelle, de prendre les devants via des mesures visant à maîtriser et réduire la dépense énergétique des TIC.

Parmi les pistes envisagées en ce sens dans le présent rapport, figurent, entre autres, l’affichage obligatoire de la consommation des téléviseurs en fonctionnement et en veille, l’obligation d’une compatibilité TNT-HD pour tout téléviseur ou adaptateur mis sur le marché dès 2009, voire le recours à un bonus/malus « modéré ».

Pourtant, il ne s’agit pas de limiter les TIC mais, bien au contraire, d’en favoriser un développement plus responsable. Pour rendre à ces technologies nouvelles tout leur potentiel de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), les auteurs du rapport appellent à une nécessaire mutation de nos façons de consommer, de travailler… Sont ainsi prônés le développement de l’achat en ligne, de même que le télétravail via des visioconférences. Or, en la matière, la France fait figure de retardataire avec environ 7 % de « télétravailleurs » contre 13 % en Europe. Pourtant, les alternatives qu’offrent les TIC « pourraient permettre d’économiser d’une à quatre fois leurs propres émissions de GES. En effet, c’est l’activité économique dans son ensemble qui réduit ses émissions grâce aux TIC… ».

Pour l’heure, si la tendance actuelle se maintient, avec un taux de croissance moyen de 10 %, les TIC pèseront pour 20 % de la consommation d’électricité française dès 2012. Un pourcentage difficilement conciliable avec l’objectif de réduction de 20 % de la consommation énergétique globale à l’horizon 2020.

Cécile Cassier
Illustration © rapport TIC et Développement durable

1- Télévision Numérique Terrestre.

Février 2009

"Les promoteurs des biocarburants les présentaient comme «l'énergie verte» de demain. C'est pourtant bien l'exploitation intensive de l'huile de palme qui a placé l'Indonésie au troisième rang des pays les plus pollueurs de la planète.

Selon Greenpeace, l'équivalent d'un terrain de football est brûlé toutes les dix secondes dans ce pays pour remplacer les forêts tropicales par des plantations lucratives de palmiers à huile. Le désastre écologique qu'entraîne la culture de cette nouvelle manne ne s'arrête pas là. Sur l'île de Bornéo, la déforestation favorise l'érosion des sols.

La culture massive de palmiers à huile provoque également un drame social en Indonésie. Les paysans de l'île de Sumatra, dépossédés de leurs terres au profit des sociétés de plantation, peinent à obtenir quelques hectares en guise d'indemnisation."

Le Courrier.ch

Par MANLIO DINUCCI    

GUERRE Selon une étude de la Deutsche Bank les réserves de pétrole irakien dépasseraient celles de Riad. La «connection» étasunienne du pétrole salive en vue du conflit irakien.

Source: www.cleanmpg.com

Etant donné que «M. Hussein a favorisé des entreprises françaises russes et chinoises» en finalisant avec elles (y compris des compagnies italiennes) des accords pour l`exploitation du pétrole irakien alors que «les multinationales étasuniennes ainsi que l`anglo-étasunienne BP Amoco en ont été exclues» ces accords «seront honorés si M. Hussein reste à la tête du pays» mais «s`il en est éloigné de grandes manoeuuvres s`ouvriront autour des gisements irakiens» peut-on lire dans le rapport. Et dans cet Irak qui deviendra le prochain «protectorat» de Washington les compagnies étasuniennes tireront leur épingle du jeu: Exxon Mobil et BP Amoco qui seront secondées par l`anglo-hollandaise Royal Dutch Shell.

BARILS DÉTERRÉS

Quelle est la visée de ces manoeuuvres? L`Energy Information Administration (EIA) une organisation gouvernementale étasunienne explique que l`Irak possède des réserves de pétrole consistantes atteignant en 2002 les 112 milliards de barils. Ce «trésor» vient après celui de l`Arabie Saoudite qui compte 262 milliards de barils. Aux réserves irakiennes connues s`ajoutent celles qui ont été découvertes ces dernières années dans le désert occidental une zone que selon une information diffusée par l`Associated Press le premier ministre israélien Ariel Sharon a proposé à George W. Bush d`occuper «préventivement» par une «opération conjointe».

Les barils retrouvés devraient avoisiner le chiffre de 220 milliards de barils. Mais poursuit l`EIA «étant donné que le pays est resté en grande partie inexploré à cause de la guerre leur nombre pourrait être plus élevé». Globalement les réserves de pétrole irakien se situeraient alors autour des 332 milliards de barils ce qui veut dire que Bagdad détient la palme mondiale devant l`Arabie Saoudite. De leur côté les Etats-Unis ne disposent que de 22 milliards de barils. Selon le rythme de consommation actuel le brut étasunien ne durerait que onze ans alors que les fûts irakiens pourraient alimenter les besoins en énergie pour plus d`un siècle et demi. Or il faut savoir que Washington dépend de plus en plus des importations de pétrole. Le pays en a tellement besoin qu`il importe de l`Iran quelque 795 000 barils par jour. Dans le marché en outre «les prix sont tellement élevés que la relance économique pourrait être compromise» analyse l`EIA.

BUSH CHENEY AND CO

Dès lors la solution semble à portée de main. En occupant l`Irak les Etats-Unis disposeraient d`énormes réserves de pétrole à bas prix. La mainmise sur le brut irakien permettrait à Washington d`affaiblir l`OPEP le cartel des pays producteurs de pétrole. Qui plus est le contrôle du robinet de Bagdad libérerait l`Oncle Sam de la dépendance vis-à-vis de l`Arabie Saoudite un pays devenu peu fiable aux yeux des Etats-Unis et lui offrirait l`opportunité d`influer sur la fixation des prix. Washington pourrait également diriger l`effet de concurrence du pétrole irakien contre la Russie mais surtout contre l`Union européenne et le Japon. Ces derniers dépendent respectivement à hauteur de 30% et 81% du brut du Golfe.

Voilà pourquoi le contrôle des vannes pétrolières de Bagdad est de plus en plus un objectif primaire pour les Etats-Unis. Sans oublier les visées de la puissante «connection» du brut très présente au sein de l`administration de George W. Bush le représentant maximus du lobby pétrolier américain secondé par le vice-président Dick Cheney qui était jusqu`à hier le directeur général de la compagnie Halliburton Co la «première gagnante» d`une éventuelle guerre en Irak.

Adaptation: FLo.

http://lecourrier.ch/index.php?name=NewsPaper&file=article&sid=1911

Global Research, May 21, 2008


By F. William Engdahl*

As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today’s $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract.

At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.

The hoax of Peak Oil—namely the argument that the oil production has hit the point where more than half all reserves have been used and the world is on the downslope of oil at cheap price and abundant quantity—has enabled this costly fraud to continue since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 with the help of key banks, oil traders and big oil majors. Washington is trying to shift blame, as always, to Arab OPEC producers. The problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations.

World Oil Demand Flat, Prices Boom…

The chief market strategist for one of the world’s leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of J.P. Morgan Funds, recently admitted something telling to the Washington Post, “One of the things I think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil consumption is not that strong."

One of the stories used to support the oil futures speculators is the allegation that China’s oil import thirst is exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand equilibrium. The facts do not support the China demand thesis however.

The US Government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its most recent monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report, concluded that US oil demand is expected to decline by 190,000 b/d in 2008. That is mainly owing to the deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from exploding, is expected to rise this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was around 7 million b/d total. The US, by contrast, consumes around 20.7 million b/d.

That means the key oil consuming nation, the USA, is experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels, less than half of a percent of the total demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.2 mm bpd, as slowing economic growth in the industrialised world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing nations. OPEC predicts global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd -- largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China, the Middle East, India, and Latin America -- is forecast to be stronger but the EU and North American demand will be lower.

So the world’s largest oil consumer faces a sharp decline in consumption, a decline that will worsen as the housing and related economic effects of the US securitization crisis in finance de-leverages. The price in normal open or transparent markets would presumably be falling not rising. No supply crisis justifies the way the world's oil is being priced today.

Big new oil fields coming online

Not only is there no supply crisis to justify such a price bubble. There are several giant new oil fields due to begin production over the course of 2008 to further add to supply.

The world’s single largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia is finalizing plans to boost drilling activity by a third and increase investments by 40 %. Saudi Aramco's plan, which runs from 2009 to 2013, is expected to be approved by the company's board and the Oil Ministry this month. The Kingdom is in the midst of a $ 50 billion oil production expansion plan to meet growing demand in Asia and other emerging markets. The Kingdom is expected to boost its pumping capacity to a total of 12.5 mm bpd by next year, up about 11 % from current capacity of 11.3 mm bpd.

In April this year Saudi Arabia's Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to world oil supply of high grade Arabian Light crude. As well, another Saudi expansion project, the Khurais oilfield development, is the largest of Saudi Aramco projects that will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia's export capacity.

Brazil’s Petrobras is in the early phase of exploiting what it estimates are newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as great or greater than the North Sea. Petrobras, says the new ultra-deep Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the world's "top 10" oil producers, between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela.

In the United States, aside from rumors that the big oil companies have been deliberately sitting on vast new reserves in Alaska for fear that the prices of recent years would plunge on over-supply, the US Geological Survey (USGS) recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken.

These are just several confirmations of large new oil reserves to be exploited. Iraq, where the Anglo-American Big Four oil majors are salivating to get their hands on the unexplored fields, is believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia. Much of the world has yet to be explored for oil. At prices above $60 a barrel huge new potentials become economic. The major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices. Here they have some help from Wall Street banks and the two major oil trade exchanges—NYMEX and London-Atlanta’s ICE and ICE Futures.

Then why do prices still rise?

There is growing evidence that the recent speculative bubble in oil which has gone asymptotic since January is about to pop.

Late last month in Dallas Texas, according to one participant, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists held its annual conference where all the major oil executives and geologists were present. According to one participant, knowledgeable oil industry CEOs reached the consensus that "oil prices will likely soon drop dramatically and the long-term price increases will be in natural gas."

Just a few days earlier, Lehman Brothers, a Wall Street investment bank had said that the current oil price bubble was coming to an end. Michael Waldron, the bank's chief oil strategist, was quoted in Britain's Daily Telegraph on Apr. 24 saying, "Oil supply is outpacing demand growth. Inventories have been building since the beginning of the year.”

In the US, stockpiles of oil climbed by almost 12 million barrels in April according to the May 7 EIA monthly report on inventory, up by nearly 33 million barrels since January. At the same time, MasterCard's May 7 US gasoline report showed that gas demand has fallen by 5.8%. And refiners are reducing their refining rates dramatically to adjust to the falling gasoline demand. They are now running at 85% of capacity, down from 89% a year ago, in a season when production is normally 95%. The refiners today are clearly trying to draw down gasoline inventories to bid gasoline prices up. ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ to paraphrase Bill Clinton’s infamous 1992 election quip to daddy Bush. It’s called economic recession.

The May 8 report from Oil Movements, a British company that tracks oil shipments worldwide, shows that oil in transit on the high seas is also quite strong. Almost every category of shipment is running higher than it was a year ago. The report notes that, "In the West, a big share of any oil stock building done this year has happened offshore, out of sight." Some industry insiders say the global oil industry from the activities and stocks of the Big Four to the true state of tanker and storage and liftings, is the most secretive industry in the world with the possible exception of the narcotics trade.

Goldman Sachs again in the middle

The oil price today, unlike twenty years ago, is determined behind closed doors in the trading rooms of giant financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank or UBS. The key exchange in the game is the London ICE Futures Exchange (formerly the International Petroleum Exchange). ICE Futures is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Atlanta Georgia International Commodities Exchange. ICE in Atlanta was founded in part by Goldman Sachs which also happens to run the world’s most widely used commodity price index, the GSCI, which is over-weighted to oil prices.

As I noted in my earlier article, (‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’), ICE was focus of a recent congressional investigation. It was named both in the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations' June 27, 2006, Staff Report and in the House Committee on Energy & Commerce's hearing in December 2007 which looked into unregulated trading in energy futures. Both studies concluded that energy prices' climb to $128 and perhaps beyond is driven by billions of dollars' worth of oil and natural gas futures contracts being placed on the ICE. Through a convenient regulation exception granted by the Bush Administration in January 2006, the ICE Futures trading of US energy futures is not regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, even though the ICE Futures US oil contracts are traded in ICE affiliates in the USA. And at Enron’s request, the CFTC exempted the Over-the-Counter oil futures trades in 2000.

So it is no surprise to see in a May 6 report from Reuters that Goldman Sachs announces oil could in fact be on the verge of another "super spike," possibly taking oil as high as $200 a barrel within the next six to 24 months. That headline, "$200 a barrel!" became the major news story on oil for the next two days. How many gullible lemmings followed behind with their money bets?

Arjun Murti, Goldman Sachs' energy strategist, blamed what he called "blistering" (sic) demand from China and the Middle East, combined with his assertion that the Middle East is nearing its maximum ability to produce more oil. Peak Oil mythology again helps Wall Street. The degree of unfounded hype reminds of the kind of self-serving Wall Street hype in 1999-2000 around dot.com stocks or Enron.

In 2001 just before the dot.com crash in the NASDAQ, some Wall Street firms were pushing sale to the gullible public of stocks that their companies were quietly dumping. Or they were pushing dubious stocks for companies where their affiliated banks had a financial interest. In short as later came out in Congressional investigations, companies with a vested interest in a certain financial outcome used the media to line their pockets and that of their companies, leaving the public investor holding the bag. It would be interesting for Congress to subpoena the records of the futures positions of Goldman Sachs and a handful of other major energy futures players to see if they are invested to gain from a further rise in oil to $200 or not.

Margin rules feed the frenzy

Another added turbo-charger to present speculation in oil prices is the margin rule governing what percent of cash a buyer of a futures contract in oil has to put up to bet on a rising oil price (or falling for that matter). The current NYMEX regulation allows a speculator to put up only 6% of the total value of his oil futures contract. That means a risk-taking hedge fund or bank can buy oil futures with a leverage of 16 to 1.

We are hit with an endless series of plausible arguments for the high price of oil: A "terrorism risk premium;" “blistering” rise in demand of China and India; unrest in the Nigerian oil region; oil pipelines' blown up in Iraq; possible war with Iran…And above all the hype about Peak Oil. Oil speculator T. Boone Pickens has reportedly raked in a huge profit on oil futures and argues, conveniently that the world is on the cusp of Peak Oil. So does the Houston investment banker and friend of Dick Cheney, Matt Simmons.

As the June 2006 US Senate report, The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices, noted, "There's a few hedge fund managers out there who are masters at knowing how to exploit the peak oil theories and hot buttons of supply and demand, and by making bold predictions of shocking price advancements to come, they only add more fuel to the bullish fire in a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy."

Will a Democratic Congress act to change the carefully crafted opaque oil futures markets in an election year and risk bursting the bubble? On May 12 House Energy & Commerce Committee stated it will look at this issue into June. The world will be watching.

*Global Research Associate F. William Engdahl is a leading analyst of the New World Order, author of the best-selling book on oil and geopolitics, A Century of War: Anglo-American Politics and the New World Order,’ His writings have been translated into more than a dozen languages. 

This skillfully researched book focuses on how a small socio-political American elite seeks to establish control over the very basis of human survival: the provision of our daily bread. "Control the food and you control the people."

This is no ordinary book about the perils of GMO.  Engdahl takes the reader inside the corridors of power, into the backrooms of the science labs, behind closed doors in the corporate boardrooms.

The author cogently reveals a diabolical World of profit-driven political intrigue, government corruption and coercion, where genetic manipulation and the patenting of life forms are used to gain worldwide control over food production. If the book often reads as a crime story, that should come as no surprise. For that is what it is.

Engdahl's carefully argued critique goes far beyond the familiar controversies surrounding the practice of genetic modification as a scientific technique. The book is an eye-opener, a must-read for all those committed to the causes of social justice and World peace.

www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=9042